Gylfason um íslendska miraklið

Thorvaldur Gylfason, sum føroyingar kanska kenna frá ráðstevnuni Fólksins ogn ella í Norðurlandahúsinum í mars í ár, hevur skrivað grein um leiðina hjá Íslandi úr kreppuni (pdf). Greinin, ið er útgivin av Legatum Institute, er á enskum, men skjótt lisin. Greinin viðger makrobúskaparpolitikkin hjá Íslandi, síðani kreppan rakti, hvat man gjørdi við bankarnar, hjálp man fekk uttaneftir (bæði lán og ráðgeving), brotsverk sum fóru fram í vinnulívi og fyrisiting, rættarliga eftirspælið. Greinin endar optimistiskt við:

Financial crises never wipe countries out—firms, yes, people, sometimes, but not nations. For nations always come back, even after they default. (Which, by the way, Iceland did not do: While the government refused to cover the debts run up by the private banks, it continued to service Iceland’s sovereign debt.)

One reason is that most of the wealth of every middle- and high-income country is in the form human and social capital. Financial wealth is generally of second-order importance; indeed, according to the World Bank, it typically constitutes only about one-twentieth of the total. So, for a financial crash to do deep and lasting economic damage, it needs to destroy human or social capital by, for example, undermining the country’s institutions—democracy, the rule of law, respect for private property, the consensus behind universal education and health care, etc.

This seems an unlikely outcome in Iceland. There is no evidence that Iceland’s social indicators, a useful barometer of national morale, have been adversely affected by the crisis. Suicides did not increase in number; life expectancy—a remarkable 82 years—shows no sign of decline. Belt tightening hasn’t been fun, but it hasn’t shredded the social fabric.

In short, Iceland’s economic miracle has been sullied, and in spectacular fashion. But for all the inclination toward political myopia and crony capitalism displayed in the run-up to the crash, Iceland’s traditions of civility, social cohesion and just getting on with it have paid off in the interim.